Skill in Solar Wind Shock Forecasts

Forecasts of 96 shocks in the solar wind at the L1 point made by the HAF kinematic solar wind model made between 5 February and 31 December 2001 are compared to algorithmically determined shocks from real-time data from the SWEPAM and MAG instruments aboard the ACE spacecraft. Traditional measures of forecast skill used by the meteorological community are applied to these forecasts and observations and indicate modest skill in the HAF model. Details of forecast skill are determined using the BriggsRuppert skill score which incorporates the costs of forecast error. This new metric is shown by the present example to be a potentially valuable tool to the customer of space weather forecasts in that it focuses on the actual application of the forecasts and identifies economic regimes where a given forecast is potentially valuable.